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Real-Money Stock Picks / Messed-Up Expectations Portfolio


Subject:  Re: Portfolio performances Date:  1/16/2011  6:35 PM
Author:  huddaman Number:  163 of 1287

Thank you Jim for explaining so clearly. No I was not going to nominate TomE. But hey, if he agreed, that would be awesome. He is probably already a star in his own right. If he is made the manager of the next million dollar portfolio, and the subscription fee is reasonable, I will surely subscribe. I don't need write-ups if he is the PM, just a service that send alerts before his every purchase/sale. And probably a discussion board.

I understand the process a lot better now. So you got 5k in Nov, 1k in Dec and 1k on 1/1/2011 totaling 7k. Without accounting for your latest unpublished purchase, you have invested 2562.51 out of 7000. My advice, don't underestimate the cash drag. This is probably a year when S&P 500 will ascend above 1400. Your individual picks rock, but overall portfolio allocation decision (64% cash) indicates you have not put the cash to good use, hence mistimed the market.

I bet when you and others decided to horde cash, you guys thought S&P500 will drop along with your watch list allowing you to more easily crush SPY. You are going to be held against the benchmark previously disclosed in the game which is SPY. If you have decided to hold cash for opportunistic buys, you have to live upto the consequences.

That said, you probably have the best chance of winning based on your accuracy so far and consistent out-performance on a per pick basis. But then, its too early to judge, good investments can pan out over mutliyear periods, not weeks. That 64% cash you have been hoarding might present you with opportunities you would not have had otherwise.

Rising star is a really nice concept, and I am thankful to TMF for starting it, and including someone of your caliber.

I'll let you know my nomination separately.

Good luck!
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