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Subject:  Re: TXT - love a thesis that's working Date:  6/23/2011  3:13 PM
Author:  TMFGebinr Number:  395 of 1287

Hi aitraders,

Thanks for the article. Quite interesting.

Over the past month or so, I've let the tracking of current positions slip a bit in the MUE port. (A big part of that was the time taken up studying for the CFA level 2 exam.) With that time sink now behind me for a while, I've been catching up on the port positions, but hadn't yet gotten around to Textron.

Of course, I wouldn't make any move toward a third purchase unless I had caught up, so I hope I would have seen that before making any further decision.

I can understand letting the Cessna CEO go for spending the money sooner than was probably needed, leading to a larger than expected (by the parent, at least) loss. Misjudging something that large is pretty significant. The replacement seems to be a good choice on the surface; at least he has industry experience. We'll have to see how that works out.

Over the longer term of the next couple of years, I don't think the thesis is in trouble. It should rebound. Note the comment about trailing corporate profit recovery by about 2 years and being about 18 months into the current cycle. Implies stronger results about a year from now, if not a bit sooner (though I'm not holding my breath). The Citation 10 will also help.

At $22.68 (last night's close), 2.9% / 1.5% / 0% is the pattern (at 15% discount rate). Heh, actually, 2.9% is the past 5 year average for FCF growth.

We'll see. I'll be catching up on Textron this weekend and making a final decision on another purchase possibility for the month.

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