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Subject:  Re: TXT - love a thesis that's working Date:  6/24/2011  12:27 PM
Author:  aitraders Number:  398 of 1287

That's kind of what I thought. I had RIG earlier (before crisis) and NE, and sold off RIG to limit exposure.

I just feel that, at current price, they appear to be priced for 0 growth going forward, which is absurd. They have some new builds coming on line (the debt for which came at good rates), and are moving rigs out of the gulf, which should result in the rubberband effect for the current state of depressed earnings.

10 year summary from -

As far as FNF goes, I dont treat it as a financial. I look at it as a nuts and bolts player in the real estate business. A service industry. Any real estate transaction must have title insurance. They also do some specialty insurance.

I listened to the conference call and a couple of things stood out - current Q margins at 9% and they were very happy to 'get back' there. In a good market (current market is 1 Trillion, good market accdg. to CEO is 2T), they get 13-15% margins.

They have 5 billion in investments(escrow monies), 1.8 billion of which is not restricted actuarily. Kind of like PAYX, low interest rate environment is hurting ability to earn extra change.

Link to last Q-

Things like no. of order opened and closed, Fee per title are pretty good tracking devices. And I think FCF plays just as important of a role as it does with any other service industry.

Gurufocus DCF with 1.74 in EPS and 15.46 BV and 10% growth next 10 years/3% terminal with a 15% discount rate spits out 32.58 IV.

Dividend appears to be well covered and sits at 3.1%.

BTW, I havent dug into this at all, but they also own minority interests in:

FNF as a holding company also owns minor interest in 3 subsidiaries -

Ceridian (33%), a competitor to PAYX -,6267,15591,00.html

REMY (47%) -

American Blue Ribbon Holdings (47%) -

A little berkshire-esque, maybe?

ANYWAY, just some more food for thought since you seem to have so much time on your hands :))

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