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Subject:  Re: Valero (VLO) Date:  1/25/2012  7:27 AM
Author:  saunafool Number:  9013 of 25579

Gas prices were record high in 2008 and they almost got there again in early 2011. TSO responded partially, VLO not so much. But they never got near 2008 levels--why?

I suspect the difference is that 2003--2007 was a period of economic growth, so investors believed tightness of supply would persist. Very few considered how quickly demand could be destroyed by a recession.

Now, prospects look bleak, so investors do not see a persistently tight supply situation.

My personal belief is that when the economic recovery picks up steam, refined product supply will become tight very fast and the refiners will outperform the market. I suspect this will happen this year, perhaps only based on foolish optimism.

Then, when people start wondering why there haven't been any new refineries built, it will be time to head for the exits.
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