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CAPS / Lessons from CAPS


Subject:  Re: Lucky or skillful? Date:  5/1/2012  11:16 PM
Author:  dillbeans Number:  178 of 188


Thanks for posting! I would like to see more activity on this board.

I agree that in a real portfolio what matters is your total return (in CAPS speak, that would be your "average pick score.") However, I think the problem you mention is dealt with to some degree in player rankings. A portfolio of 100 stocks gaining 1000% is much less likely to be due to luck than a portfolio of 10 stocks with the same gain. It is also less risky. And player rankings are based in part on the probability of achieving your accuracy, not just the accuracy itself. So I think it is reasonable to give the picker of 100 winning stocks a higher score than the picker of 10 winning stocks.


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