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Motley Fool Global Gains / GGS: Potash Corp.


Subject:  Jubak on Potash Date:  5/22/2012  5:48 AM
Author:  Starrob Number:  31 of 50

This is a older article but contains reasons for buying Potash:

"n my April 2 post on the great first quarter turned in by cyclical stocks—and the lousy March–I said that in general I don’t see much to tempt me into putting money into cyclical stocks before first quarter earnings season (which starts on April 10) and before we get some resolution of big macroeconomic questions on growth from Europe and China.

In general.

But I also said that I’d make an exception for fertilizer producer Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) and I promised to explain why.

Part of the reason is the March 30 report on corn plantings from the U.S. Department of Agriculture that projected a 4% increase in acreage planted this year from the 2011 level. A second report on corn stock inventory showed inventory on March 1, 2012 of just 6.01 billion bushels, down 8% from the March 1, 2011 inventory levels. The corn stocks level of 6.01 billion bushels was below the consensus of 6.15 billion bushels.

The two reports add up to more planting—which means more seed and fertilizer and pesticides purchased by farmers—and to higher prices as stocks fall before the actual harvest.

But part of the reason is specific to Potash.

Potash prices were soft for much of the first quarter but recent news of contract settlements with Chinese buyers has stabilized prices."

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