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Subject:  Re: Estimating a Value for FB Date:  5/26/2012  2:32 AM
Author:  Fuskie Number:  163 of 1376

Grow up, loser

You obviously don't know me very well. I try to avoid personal attacks, even ones sent by private email from an unreturnable address.

I have never claimed that any analyses, positive or negative, is false. All I am saying is that in this case they are premature. The company as a public entity is only a week old. It is certainly possible that those who have bought shares already will never regain their initial value. I don't think it is cheerleading to say that's not likely over the long term, however.

I don't think Mark Zuckerberg is a Steve Jobs nor that Facebook will experience the kind of growth that has favored Apple over the last few years. I am trying to find the line somewhere between Polyanna and Chicken Little. Certainly those who have bought this Friday opened a position at a better price than those who bought on IPO Friday. I'm ok with that - this isn't a competition.

I expect the Facebook of 10 years from now won't look a whole lot like the Facebook of today. Few companies, and few of us, ever do. I also expect that Facebook will deal with the current legal and strategic questions, much like it did during it's early days as a private startup. And in time I expect Zuckerberg, who still owns a significantly controlling interest in Facebook, will unveil to his millions of new partners how he intends to grow the company and produce a return on our investment.

To a large degree, investing in any IPO is to invest on faith. Sure a new public company has a history, official financial filings and certain expectations based on the product or service. But how they behave and perform as a public company is always an unknown. In Facebook's case, that means a faith in Zuckerberg as well. As much as an investor needs to understand the company's revenues and expenses, they have to understand that the success or failure of the company rests on Mark Zuckerberg's vision and ability to execute that vision.

I am not a big fan of analyst estimates or corporate guidance. They have their place, of course, but sometimes too much emphasis is placed on predictive analysis. These calculations all to often reflect some of the biases of the authoring mathematician as some of the variables are nessarily based on assumptions about the future. It's not wrong, it's just the nature of the game.

To be fair, I knew of last quarter's down revenues and of GM pulling its ads, but thought that Ford stepping in to fill the gap was. Positive sign. Had I known about the secret revenue estimates beforehand, it might have given me pause but it probably would have only affected my limit price. Fundamentally, when you invest in any company, you are taking a calculated leap of faith in its future. I bought Facebook because I think it will have a good one, even if it takes some time to be realized.

Who doesn't always agree with Zuckerberg, but just as he recognizes there are different ways to invest, he understands that there are different ways to run a company and is prepared to give him time to prove his...
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