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Subject:  Re: Romney Takes Lead!! Date:  10/7/2012  4:40 PM
Author:  tamhas Number:  64088 of 116321

I don't complain about any form of house effect, Dem or Rep. It is an empirical measure of where a firm lies, on the average, relative to the average. Hence, the term "house effect" to remove it from the sense of bias, which someone might think is intentional. I don't comment on it except when interpreting individual polls, which mostly I don't cite since averages are more reliable and informative. It comes up here a lot because you guys cite individual polls. If you were citing polls that were from firms with dem house effects, and there are just as many of those and with rep house effects ... by definition! ... then I would point that out, but we aren't likely to run into that, are we.

Yes, there has been some post-debate swing to Romney. We have yet to see whether there will be a post-jobs report swing, whether the post-debate swing is a bounce that will fade or if it is lasting, or what the effect of the remaining debates will be, because I am pretty sure the next two are unlikely to be like the one that has passed.
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