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Subject:  Re: Nate Silver to Joe Scarborough: Wanna Bet? Date:  11/1/2012  12:36 PM
Author:  akck Number:  46041 of 120628

My only comment is that models continue to work until they don't.

I used to think my cash flow models good and even better as I made them more complex. As time went on they started giving bad projections caused by the model and/or bad input by the users. While we haven't abandoned the model, I've taken out some of the complexity.

This is why I take results from "accurate" models with a grain of salt. Remember the old saying: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
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