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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/the-only-way-this-is-not-true-is-if-monty-hall-30398230.aspx

Subject:  Re: 5 Statistics Problems To Change Your View Date:  11/25/2012  1:03 PM
Author:  Watty56 Number:  409526 of 567674

The only way this is not true is if Monty Hall knows which is the right door and you can game his psychology in which door he shows you.

One of the reasons that the Monty Hall problem seems so counter intuitive is that the problem is stated badly and does not match the "game" the way that is was really played. He did know the right door and was not required to show you a door.

If someone was playing with his own money then they would know that they had already won two thirds of the time and they would only offer to let you swap doors when they knew that you had already won (or to entice you to swap doors more often in the future).

If anyone wants to play that game with me for real money at even odds I'll be glad to play Monty Hall, if I get to know the right door and if I do not have to offer to let you trade doors each time. If we play long enough I will guarantee that I will win at least two thirds of the time.
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