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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/i-think-youre-right-about-the-stones-though-30398323.aspx

Subject:  Re: 5 Statistics Problems To Change Your View Date:  11/25/2012  2:10 PM
Author:  Goofyhoofy Number:  409539 of 567678

I think you're right about the stones, though. It's a bad example for Simpson's paradox. A really bad one.

Nate Silver will be aghast.

And I don't care what the math says, I think it's 50-50 for Monte Hall. How does the door know if this is "the same game" or a new one with only two doors to chose from? Monte may know, but he's not doing the choosing. Door=roulette wheel. No institutional memory. Every spin is independent of whatever came before.
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