The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks


Subject:  Re: 5 Statistics Problems To Change Your View Date:  11/25/2012  3:15 PM
Author:  SuisseBear Number:  409552 of 578623

I think it's 50-50 for Monte Hall. How does the door know if this is "the same game" or a new one with only two doors to chose from? Monte may know, but he's not doing the choosing. Door=roulette wheel. No institutional memory. Every spin is independent of whatever came before.

Nope. The key is that the host knows, opens a booby prize door after you pick, and thereby gives you information that you didn't have upon your initial choice. If your initial choice was wrong (2/3 probability) then switching will ensure you win at 100%.
Copyright 1996-2020 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us