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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/every-spin-is-independent-of-whatever-came-30398782.aspx

Subject:  Re: 5 Statistics Problems To Change Your View Date:  11/25/2012  9:12 PM
Author:  AdvocatusDiaboli Number:  409585 of 567444

Every spin is independent of whatever came before.

The key to the problem is to understand that it's NOT a new spin.

It's still the same spin. You're just given some additional information.

Perhaps the easiest to understand example:

There a 1000 doors. You pick one. Monte opens of the remaining doors to show you the goats, except one (998).
Do you think the last unpicked door he hasn't opened has a 50% chance?
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