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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks


Subject:  Re: 5 Statistics Problems To Change Your View Date:  11/25/2012  9:43 PM
Author:  bearwhizbeer Number:  409588 of 578546

Can't believe after lurking here for so long that I am jump in on this issue.

Here's my problem. All those decision trees show three door paths. However, the real decision comes after Monte has removed one of the doors. And not a random door, I might add, which puts the kink in the logic. He's going to show you a goat irregardless of your pick. You have already "own" a door which either has a goat or a car, and the door he has shown you is now irrelevant. I believe the decision trees should begin here, when one door has a goat (or worse), and the other has a car. To "not switch" is to choose the door you have. To "switch" is to choose the door you do not have.

Or so it seems to me.
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