The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Investment Analysis Clubs / Liquid Lounge


Subject:  Re: Gold - Updated TA Date:  12/19/2012  3:41 PM
Author:  MDCigan Number:  41188 of 41593

Did you see Jim Rogers interview with cnbc? He is cautious and talking caution, saying GOLD had not had a meaningful correction (except 2008) in its 12 year bull run. He is thinking a 20 to 30% correction is due.

I haven't seen the interview yet. I think Jim is an astute trader, and he may be right about an upcoming 20-30% correction, but he is factually incorrect about no meaningful correction in 12-year bull run except for 2008 unless he is drawing his line right around 30% which seems pretty arbitrary. The drop in 2008 was from 1034 to 681 peak to trough which is a 34% decline. Seems to me that both the 2006 and 2011 corrections were meaningful. The 2006 drop was 732 to 546 peak to trough which is a 25% drop which isn't too far from the size of the 2008 drop. The 2011 drop was 1924 to 1524 peak to trough which is a 21% drop

I didn't had a chance to catch the interview fully, which I will do in later in the evening, but if his prediction is to come true then we are looking at breaching $1500 mark.

FWIW, during this multi-year run, gold has often put in corrective cycle lows in the Dec to Feb time frame so let's watch the next 2 months. I'd also note that gold has already been correcting and consolidating off the 1924 peak for 16 months. Anything is possible, but if we get too March and we are still churning sideways in between a rising 200 DMA and 1800, I'll be pretty sure the next big move isn't another 20-30% down.
Copyright 1996-2018 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us