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Subject:  Re: The NPI 2013? Date:  1/5/2013  12:42 PM
Author:  rjf53 Number:  65603 of 115956

perhaps a by-product of the change in topics on the board?

Hi Tom,

If you go beyond the stories that made the big NPI winners, winners, and the big losers, losers, I think there is a simpler explanation to the under-performance of the picks vs. the indices.

Simply stated as the bull market has matured it is going through it's usual transition from junk/speculative stocks outperforming early into a period where more established "safer" companies have their day in the sun. Another factor IMO has been the chasing of yield and the multiple expansion that has led to with many dividend payers.

With fears of the bond market rolling over I suspect this could continue for awhile but eventually either the "safer" companies will correct or the so called junk will get to play catch up again.

With all of the money the bond markets represent any exodus from it could obviously mean good things for the stock market going forward. That being said, if the market is going to outperform I'll personally be content on pocketing out-sized gains on a smaller less equity exposed/cash heavy portfolio in the knowledge that at some point once again we'll be hearing "cash is king".

I've never understood people who claim they would like to see a correction (except for shorts) and will always be glad for profits even when they come on a smaller equity exposed portfolio. But if bad things happen I want to be in a position to afford risk when risk doesn't seem to most to be such a good idea anymore.

I expect an interesting year, although I'm far less certain how that "interesting" will play out, so I will continue in my Boy Scout mode.

Be prepared! :<)

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