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Real-Money Stock Picks / Messed-Up Expectations Portfolio


Subject:  Re: An excellent read -- and it fits right in Date:  3/23/2013  5:37 PM
Author:  DDHv Number:  892 of 1287

My preference is to set up limit bid traps at possible highs and lows after a company has been identified as likely. A help to reduce subjectivity about this is a modification of a method read about on the net. They pointed out that identifying the 1 and 2 standard deviations above and below the average price for a given period of time could be useful. Stock prices do not follow the normal distribution, but tend to be more often at the extremes. I modified this method by adding a multiplier that looks at a stretch of the beginning and end of the period used and puts in a momentum component. Also, I use a short period (90 days) and a long one (three years) and choose which to use after seeing them. Buy at -1 SD down, stop loss at -2 SD, sell at +2 SD. The mins and maxes on the three year period can also be useful. Testing now.
This has helped - I did my first successful sell low, buy lower. Tripped on the stop loss, set a buy at a lower price, got more shares at 6% lower. Someone with more experience might not need this method.
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