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Subject:  Scaled up BRK, scaled down S&P 500 Date:  2/27/2015  4:54 PM
Author:  bankersfate Number:  340 of 3779

Berkshire puts its 50past/50future year letter out tomorrow and I'm guessing Uncle Warren will be very optimistic about Berkshire's next 50 years. The stock has been flat for 3 months but did have a very strong 2014 including expansion of P/B which limits its P/B expansion prospects going forward. It's trading at 1.5x book which is lofty for the last 5 years but I think 1.5-1.6 is reasonable and book is growing even if it is sitting in cash. Sitting on cash seems prudent and while his business doesn't have killer growth prospects he doesn't do stupid things with the cashflow very often so book should go up this year baring a big drop in stocks. I don't think IBM, WFC, AXP are grossly overvalued but they'll be correlated with a market decline with most of his holdings. I think there will be a ton of press and a halo effect b/c of the letter and the annual meeting coming up. It will help that he had a killer 2014 so I'm hoping for some momo. MKL and FFH both had nice insurance reports so I expect BRK insurance results to be similar. Paid 147.52

Sold an equal amount (plus a smidgen more) of my S&P 500 in my 401k (which is really a 403b.) In the last 3 months Brk has been flat while the general market was up 2.5% plus divy. I will get the market close for this.

So mostly swapping Berkshire for S&P but it does limit me by using up most of my accessible non-403b cash.

Paint a pretty picture, Warren.

Have a great weekend everyone.
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