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Subject:  Re: VRX - Some notes from recent news Date:  3/17/2016  4:34 PM
Author:  NajdorfSicilian Number:  24025 of 26255

Company now trading at 6.7x revised downwards ebitda. I feel confident they can file accurate financials by April 30th. No lender wants to put them in anything close to BK.

PFE trades at 9x ebitda. Rest of pharma trades at 10-14x ebitda. Most of these are slow/no-growth firms.

If VRX files properly, gets its act together over the next 12-24 months -- they have very few maturities until 2018 -- you'd think it could trade up to 9x ebitda. Also they did not increase prices this year so going fwd, I think they can increase the traditional 6-10% that all the other pharmas do.

I don't know what the upside is, nor how long it would take to get there. Certainly, the time to generally buy is at the darkest point for numbers and news releases, and VRX could be there.

But, my #3 rule is don't buy turnarounds until they turn around.

No position.

ps Frankly, I think the bonds are a better bet as of today. It's not like VRX can waste their cash on another acquisition or borrow more, those days are over for a long time.
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