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Subject:  Re: VRX - Some notes from recent news Date:  3/18/2016  3:20 PM
Author:  DTBoojum Number:  24036 of 26255

And then of course all these criticisms that Left was making turn out to be true, in fact it's even a fair bit worse
Not remotely true. The stock has done worse than his initial downside target, if that's what you mean.

No, I didn't mean his stock price prediction was wrong, I mean his criticism of one important aspect of the company's business model has turned out to be quite accurate, and other aspects turn out to be problematic as well.

Prominent among Left's criticisms was the drug distribution model with specialty pharmacies:

For example the association with Phildor, and the insurance fraud that allowed Phildor to generate sales of very expensive generics where cheaper alternatives are available (see for instance the story here about $2500 cold sore cream with equivalents available for $15-20:

Where I will agree with you is that I think Left misattributed the motivation behind these specialty pharmacies: he said they were to create phantom revenue, à la Enron, whereas I think they were more a matter of making sure insurance companies covered expensive products for which there are more economical alternatives, by using and abusing billing procedures.

But as scrutiny has increased, we find out that there is not just one cockroach in the kitchen; there are serious problems with accounting, with management, with reporting, and of course now there are also problems with the business model of acquisitions financed by cheap debt and margins juiced by massive price increases. So where Left described one problem (Phildor etc.), the problems with Valeant turn out to be much, much worse, as I think even people with long positions must surely agree by now.

Regards, DTB
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