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Subject:  Re: OT-Bitcoin Date:  11/6/2017  10:45 AM
Author:  AllTooFoolish Number:  268348 of 279088

I was so intrigued with the notion of bitcoin a few years back that I put a little fiat money into it just to see what "might" happen. My return on that little bit of investment has been off the charts. As it price climbed higher I have always struggled with the notion of its true worth. I had this struggle when it hit $250, then again when it went to $500, and $1000 (I said this cant be real?) ... and yet today it sits at over $7000 and is still rising. While my return has been off the charts I am still not convinced or can point to why ... other than speculation on a MASSIVE scale.

What I have come to believe is that its financial value on a stand alone basis is small and likely nowhere near what it is trading at on the market. However, from a broader perspective the technology will likely produce significant value to thousands of organizations. I believe it is one of those things that is so valuable that it becomes worthless over time. There are dozens of examples of products and services like this.

Think of the notion of when email first came to be and then went mainstream. Those companies that tapped into the technology early, such as AOL and Hotmail, made a lot of money in a short period of time. Then, it all disappeared a few years later. Who is willing to pay for email now? Most email accounts are free or charge a small nominal amount to service the account. While its financial value has been reduced to nearly zero, email as a service is a huge value to millions of people and businesses - yet no one pays for it.

Since Bitcoin is not a company with earnings, or a rare commodity, and is something that can be replicated at practically zero costs I struggle to see how its price will stay in the heavens. What will break its back and when? I do not know. Maybe it's some clever programmer that finds a way to counterfeit the coins. Something similar has already happened with Ethereum coins and the gods that control the code set to unwind the hack with hard forks. Maybe it happens over time as people/companies realize the technology provides the value and it can be easily replicated - why buy a bitcoin for $7000. Or, maybe other realize the technology is the key and simply force the value of their new coin to zero by producing an infinite amount so that the value of the coin isn't the root for the demand but rather the services that can be made off the coins back.

IMO, BTC price will come crashing down at some point. I just don't know when, why, or how quickly. Meanwhile, I took my original investment off the table a while ago and am simply enjoying the ride.

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