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Subject:  20m with express Date:  3/29/2018  1:39 PM
Author:  GreenMartianX Number:  2603 of 3781

been catching up w/my Cramer - yes, i do find the time very well spent - very well spent, esp if you skip the first segment which is short-term oriented and the lightening round which is too rapid-fire to amount to much - so maybe 30m an episode of solid viewing.

Mall based retailers came up - Express came up, so I spent 20m with it. Quick notes:

*cap is 571.4 right now at $7.24 (ok)
*234m in cash free and clear (lots of cash - not a BK candidate)
*EV is 337m (seems cheapish)
*CFFO is 119m (really? So 35% gross cash flow yield?)
*CapEx is 57m (yikes - seems high; at least for me, the CapEx line is the most important one for retailers these days; still, an 18% FCF yield)

course, with numbers like these, there must be something wrong (duh)

from 20m:

*CFFO was 187m in 2017 with one less week; so 119m is nice but there are some major issues
*as you would suspect, store growth is non-existent - closures and conversions to outlets - last year, closed 38 stores, converted 24 to outlets (24 closures; 24 openings); in 2018, plans are for 10 outlets, 8 closures, and 28 conversions. So they are moving to an outlet strategy
*E-comm is picking up - company was at 509 and it was up nicely, but i didn't see much on how profitable it is (remember, companies like this actually have to make money, not lose it; different standard entirely) and I’m not even how it is defined (only spent 20m; so don’t know if this is order and pick up or whatever) so not sure if this is good or bad
*apparently traffic wasn't very good for the year, and wasn't good in Q4, and for all the discussion in the call I couldn't think of a reason this will get better so you have to trend follow progress
*inventory is too high - 10% - they have an explanation but...
*and the CapEx - the CapEx - the CapEx: real estate and IT; new POS system; planning tools; web investments, etc. Again, this is the real world, where the pure plays in E-comm don't have to compete or actually make money of any type. Why spend so much money on this stuff if the stores are under pressure? Are outlets really an answer – long-term?

it is cheap, cheap looking
one good SSS and it could bounce - maybe 50%
but it is hard to be interested with anything other than dink money
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