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Subject:  Re: Shanghai'd Date:  6/5/2007  2:24 AM
Author:  StockSpreadsheet Number:  8283 of 480

I don't think the world worries as much anymore about the Shanghai index, if I got my indexes straight, and this deflation is just what the Chinese government wanted when they raised the transaction tax on stock purchases on the Shanghai stock market.  If the Hang Seng index dropped by 25%, then the world would panic.  As I understand it, the Shanghai index is an internal index, invested in mostly by Chinese citizens and has way too much money chasing way too few stocks.  I don't believe that too many non-Chinese are invested in the Shanghai index, so the impact on the world should be fairly minimal.  If you look at the ADR's of CEO, BIDU or ACH you will see they haven't dropped much recently, and these should be big players in the Shanghai index.  If it only hurts Chinese citizens, then that limits the effects on the rest of the world.  The Chinese are not a big consumer society in the sense of personal goods, (which is why they have huge trade surpluses and huge foreign reserves), so while this is painful for Chinese consumers, I don't think it will hurt companies such as Boeing, BP or Toyota, so realistically should have minimal effect on world markets.  Just my opinion.


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