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Subject:  Re: Time for a Few Small Repairs Date:  1/22/2008  1:55 PM
Author:  jcrash Number:  27207 of 530

This is not the tech bust.  Those companies had NO EARNINGS and were so overbought it was ridiculous.  Fundamentals didn't exist.

This is more like 1987 where the market is actually priced pretty well, but there are external influences on the situation.  1987 had to do with an increase in volatility knocking out the "insurance" premiums on things being set with the futures markets. 

If you bought that dip in 1987 you made a ton, if you tried to buy in 2000, 2001 you got nailed.

There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines at this point that we ARE near a bottom.  I still expect a huge downmove (which today was NOT), but if you get a move over here like you did in Asia, you buy good companies and come out smelling like roses.

 The tech companies WENT AWAY.  The companies out there getting nailed now are benchmarks, bluechips, etc, and they aren't going anywhere, plus they are priced attractively already.

This is manipulation and planning.  Much too coordinated, much too timed.  Options moves last month showed this coming.  They will make a big push sometime soon and then pour their money in because this is not a recession, at least not any type of a serious recession.  So, a few hundred billion in CDO's disappeared, the actual mortgage issue is dissipating.  Rates are LOW and getting lower.  Resets are occurring at LOWER rates than they were previously.  Jobs are not being lost wholesale like they were in 2001.

 7 out of 8 of these busts are buying opportunities.  Bet on the 7.  Make no mistakes, the optimists will have to decline first, but as the gloom and doom shows, there are not many left.  Non-financials are not experiencing cratering in their earnings.  Eventually, that will be obvious and the gloom will be a real hard sell.   By then, the fast money will be in at the bottom.

 


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