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Subject:  Re: Time for a Few Small Repairs Date:  1/22/2008  8:35 PM
Author:  TMFKopp Number:  27286 of 533

I'm hesistant to try and call anything that the market is going to do, but I would point out that we're looking at a completely different situation than during the dot-com crash. While some of the economic consequences of what's going on right now may be more pronounced right now, the potential for the stock market to decline to the same extent seems highly unlikely.

In 2000 you had the twin attacks of a softening economy and sky-high valuations -- valuations the likes of which had really never been seen... Cisco at 100x earnings? Sure!

Our market wasn't particularly undervalued heading into this downturn, but the fact that it wasn't overvalued to nearly the same extent should keep losses within a relatively reasonable range.

A 50% drop in Cisco at 100x takes it to 50x, still overvalued at the time... A 50% drop in most stocks in this current market would leave them pretty cheap (not that I'm rooting for a 50% drop in anything!)...


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