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Subject:  Black Swan Means 99% of Us Get Screwed Date:  11/15/2011  1:51 AM
Author:  RallyCry Number:  365790 of 605

Jerry got me all fired up talking about black swan events.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/greece-default-do-not-be-so/668871

As in the past, an allegory to describe the economic environment...

The Past... 

There was a pond (global pool of debt instruments) that was polluted with PCBs (toxic assets). But few could see the PCBs (toxic assets) because they were buried (off of the balance sheet) within the lillipads. (big banks) Sitting in these lillipads (big banks) were frogs. (investors) 99% of these frogs (investors) have preserved (bailed out) the echo system. (capital markets)

The Present... 

Most frogs (99% of investors) are again getting deformed (screwed years later) by the new PCBs. (risky sovereign debt) The fed up frogs (99% of investors) make noise (chant and march) to take back their territory (democracy) because they feel like they have seen this story on their side of the pond before. (America, 2008)

 The Future...

Most frogs (99% of investors) don't like the idea of mirky (uncertain times) and colder water (a harsh economic environment) where they can only eat 3 flies a day (austerity) On only three flies a day, their minnows (children) will not grow as fast (malnutrition), or learn how to hunt flies for themselves. (education budget cuts)

Some frogs (1% of investors) will continue to love the new PCBs. (risky sovereign debt)  They will conduct an orchestrated chorus, (unsubstantiated campaign of rumors) loud breeding sounds, (naked shorts of the leveraged not late night programming variety) to claim territory (make ungodly profits). The 1% may also make noise to attract partners. (get laid as in the late night variety) Meanwhile, 99% of the frogs (investors) may be sitting idle on the pond (laid off).

All the while, in the background, among the drumming, the chanting, and the loud sounds full of confusing innuenedo, will be the effortless glide of the black swan.


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