The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Learning to Invest / Investing Beginners


Subject:  Re: Investing newcomer Date:  11/21/2018  11:59 AM
Author:  Arindam Number:  29195 of 29598

I think most investors are into longer term investment. Research convinces you that some select stocks are likely to do better than others over the next few years. Short term predictions next hour or next week are extremely difficult. Few have crystal balls that accurate.


Most so-called "investors" aren't 'investing' in any meaningful sense of that term. They're just gambling, and they depend on hope and bull markets to bail them out of their mistakes. But as Dalbar's 20-year studies document, they mostly fail miserably "to get it right".

Price predictions/forecasts are no more easy/difficult short-term or long term, because market time is fractal, as Mandelbrot has demonstrated. Also, a high degree of forecast accuracy is important only when payoffs are symmetrical.

Copyright 1996-2020 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us