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Subject:  Ray Dalio on the debt cycle Date:  11/24/2018  12:19 PM
Author:  mauser96 Number:  105728 of 115347

re interest rates- I was looking at interest rates in non US countries and was a bit surprised to see how easy monetary conditions are in places like the EU and Japan. The Fed is tightening but few other countries are, some still have very low or even negative one year interest rates.
Markets today are global , might this not lead to borrowing in non US countries and spending it or investing it in the US? In any case it is unusual so I wonder about historical precedent.

Is the EU is a failed experiment ? It seems that the only real growth there is government size and layers of bureaucracy. Coming up on a decade of non market based easy money and not much to show for it other than avoidance of depression.

RE bull and bear market in US. There is now more evidence to suggest a slow down. But so far little to suggest whether it will be a 2015- 2016 affair or a 2008-2009 debacle. Since markets go up 2/3 of time and go further up than they go down, my default position is to own stocks.
Of importance is that unemployment and retail spending have not flattened. So far.

and today with figures from on line we have less lag in reporting sales See Shop SQ etc

I am inclined to reduce dependence on data purely related to stock price momentum as long as the real world seems to be in decent shape.
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