The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Investment Analysis Clubs / Saul’s Investing Discussions


Subject:  Re: GRUB Date:  12/9/2018  2:44 PM
Author:  huddaman Number:  49296 of 72571

Matt & Others,

First of all thank you for engaging with me on this board about GRUB.

It appears to be a hidden gem recommendation.

It appears to be a Jan-25-2018 recommendation when the stock was at $73.40. Since then it has doubled once and then cut into half after that.

I first brought GRUB to RB's attention on 2/23/2016 when the stock was at $22.04. Active Diners were 6.75 million, revenue had incresed 36% to $100 million in their most recent quarter.

I believe the first time I learnt about was around 2010 when it was popular with my company. It allowed employees to order food after 7 PM using their internal single sign on id. No need to separately signup to seamless. Back then seamless was not owned by grubhub. Since then starting 2012, I signed up myself and have ordered lunch with my own money many times. I tried a small competitor at the time because a friend sent me a coupon. I quickly realized, that seamless/grub had the first mover advantage. at the time didnt have a rich network. What that meant is, customers who try while its still revving up wouldnt quickly return after seeing sparse selection.

In the long run, doordash, ubereats and others will all have the same restaurant collection. It takes time to attract customers. Customers like me who are happy with will continue to use it. Some might dabble with competitors, just like we all use booking, expedia, hotels etc. But EXPE and BKNG have made a lot of money for their shareholders inspite of competing with each other (another notable examlple is PEP and KO. Point is, competition doesnt mean end of the world)

https://cdn-images-*eP_tO-hF92K3fo09yUdXQA.png (

I think you cannot bet the farm on GRUB. But it sure is attractive at $7 billion market cap with healthy revenue growth and some profits too. While it can always go down, I can see potential upside and multi-baggar in the making. Its already a 3.5 baggar inspite getting cut into half since I first pitched it to the Rule Breakers (where it was ignored)

Just remember, PCLN/BKNG was trading in its $20s around 2004 and now is it $1800+. This one may not be as spectacular, but even if it goes up from $75 to $300 in 10 years, I will be very happy.
Copyright 1996-2020 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us