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Stocks M / Microvision, Inc.


Subject:  my end of year review of MVIS Date:  12/31/2018  4:42 PM
Author:  tktrimbath Number:  1379 of 1384

INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

MVIS (market cap is $0.061B was $0.104B)
Oh, do I have to write about MVIS again? No, actually; but I will because the exercise only maintains value if I maintain it.

MicroVision is an innovative electronic component manufacturer based on a simple yet difficult technology, managing the light reflected from an oscillating mirror on a chip, a MEMS chip. There are several product categories ranging from consumer electronics to artificial vision for autonomous vehicles to - well - there’s always something new. The simplest applications to imagine are projectors embedded in smartphones, and LiDAR for cars. Both may seem odd, but both have significant market precedence. People laughed at putting cameras into phones, which then also went into computers, and too many other devices to name. A projector can be even more useful, especially for devices with tiny or no displays. Instead of just talking to Alexa/Cortana/Sir, it is possible to point and click on displayed images. LiDAR, basically laser radar for cars seems unlikely, but then so did backup cameras and cruise modes based on the car in front. There is a large potential market in smarthomes that benefit from tracking people and pets.

As sweet as the potential may be, the potential has been there for years. One common refrain is, “Just wait, because 6-9 months from now everything is going to be different.” It has been, as more contracts evaporated or got lost in the accounting, or dilution maintained the market cap while shrinking the share value. One thing different in 2018 was tentative guidance that the company will have a profitable or cash flow positive quarter in late 2019. That could be as soon as 6-9 months from now.

Believe it or not, I might bought more. The stock is under $1. That’s less than a lottery ticket. The lottery ticket has greater potential, but MVIS has better odds. I bought both. Both are effectively gambles. There’s no doubt about using that label for the lottery ticket. There should be doubt about using that label for a stock, but MicroVision management reveals very little about specific products, customers, product quantities, product launch dates, or basically anything that helps gain confidence or credibility in the company. Ironically, that may be why I buy more, because even if they only have a marginal success at this point, the price may be undervalued because of market psychology, not financial analyses. Then, if they are finally revealed as a major profitable provider, I might get my initial investment back at a much lower cost basis.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone), and my patience is gone, yet my perseverance and majority of shares remain. Dilution no longer means that I have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. I may buy and have bought more simply because the stock is so cheap.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog
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