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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/duma-i39ve-added-quite-a-bit-more-to-the-metar-34117399.aspx

Subject:  Re: Anti Maduro marches back on Date:  1/23/2019  11:04 PM
Author:  captainccs Number:  108310 of 115513

Duma, I've added quite a bit more to the METaR thread and I don't want to repeat it here

https://boards.fool.com/meanwhile-in-venezuela-34117157.aspx...

but the question about the odds is a bit different. I would say it's the best opportunity we have had to get rid of Chavismo since 2002. That was an opportunity lost because it was not planned, events just took over. To recap.

A march was organized from the Caracas airport (not the international airport at the beach but a small one in the Caracas valley) to some place down town. The crowd got excited and started to shout "To Miraflores!" (our White House). Chavez had given orders to the National Guard to fire on the demonstators, an order the NG refused to obey. But Chavista snipers did fire on them. All hell broke loose. The military arrested Chavez and flew him to La Orchilla, an island about 80 miles offshore with a naval base. In Caracas the leader of the opposition took over Mirafores and instead of a pacifying and legal pronouncement went crazy reverting to the old constitution, dissolving the National Assembly and god knows what else. It was like a mindless lynch mob. The leader of the largest labor union, smelling a rat, did not attend. The military, rightly, did not want any part of it so they brought Chavez back.

This one is much better organized. I would say it has been a year in the making. Last January Ricardo Hausmann proposed a joint action by Latin American nations to depose Maduro (details at METaR). Back in 2002 the world was in favor of Chavez, now the world is against Maduro. The National Assembly is acting according to the constitution. At a minimum the action cannot be regarded as a coup but as a legal maneuver. Another important point is that in 2002 the poor were very much in favor of Chavez. Today the poor know how badly Maduro has treated them so deposing Madro is supported by the majority of the people. It depends largely on what side the military take, they have a lot to lose but I would suppose that the organizers have contacted some officers about it. A military intervention like Grenada seems to me rather unlikely but who knows. Since Maduro invited the Russians for help maybe Trump will invoke the Monroe Doctrine.

Tomorrow I'll go find out how the mood is on the streets.

Denny Schlesinger
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