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Subject:  Re: macro - dem president Date:  3/6/2019  3:57 PM
Author:  NajdorfSicilian Number:  3612 of 3717

All very good questions, tax hikes without a doubt, harm to HC companies sure, maybe a min wage hike also.

The Senate map is not as good for Dems as it would seem with Rs having 22 seats to defend and Dems 12 seats including the special election in AZ.

Doug Jones a D in an R+14 Bama seat would seem to be toast. That puts Rs up 4 seats before any possible VP tiebreak [let's leave POTUS party aside for now]

Dems could hold Zona. They have a shot at Rs in CO and IA. It's hard for me to see them taking Susan Collins' seat, although of course anything can happen.

If they don't - where does that 50th seat come from? David Purdue in an R+5 southern state? Texas or 3 other R+9 states? With POTUS on the ballot I find that very difficult although not impossible to believe. And to get to 51 Dems would need to run AZ, IA, CO, ME, GA and a 6th and not lose any save AL [or win there again, highly doubtful].

How do you calculate Joe Manchin, D, WVa, who voted with POTUS 61% of the time, although against the tax cuts...? He may not be willing to vote for tax hikes in an economically depressed state. Same for a large min-wage increase. I dunno.

What if Cory Booker is the nominee? That seat is now up for grabs. Etc.

People hate Congress but love their Senators for some reason.
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