The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Fool Community Help Desk / Ask A Foolish Question


Subject:  Re: Anadarko Petroleum Date:  3/16/2019  6:04 PM
Author:  Arindam Number:  279695 of 282665


The OP asks a perennially asked question, "How long will it take for XYZ to recover?"

Obviously, no one can say with certainty, given that no one know what the future will be. But it's possible to make contingent projections, based on either fundamentals or technicals. So, do this. At FreeChart, plot APC with weekly bars and a 3-year look back. Next, create enough white space to the right of current prices that a trendline can be projected into the future off the three recent lows. It takes until 2025 before price tags $54.

Obvious, going forward, APC can do worse than it's presently doing, just as it can do better. (I.e., the "cone of uncertainty"). But the expectation should be that it will pretty much do whatever it's currently doing, which means a long, long wait before prices get back to the OP's entry point. Meanwhile, of course, inflation has been eroding purchasing power, creating steady losses.

As traders say --and as "investors" should learn to say-- "Your first loss is your best loss." If the market doesn't immediately confirm that your entry was correct, you need to admit that you made a bad bet and to fix the problem.
Copyright 1996-2020 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us