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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/ltquotsothe-sad-news-is-that-you-cannot-34161772.aspx

Subject:  Re: How factor Social Security in retirement dra Date:  3/20/2019  11:32 AM
Author:  Rayvt Number:  92522 of 104272

<"So...the sad news is that you cannot (safely) take a larger draw on your portfolio before you start collecting SS"

I think you could, provided you counter-balance it by taking a smaller draw on your portfolio after you start collecting SS. That's the calculation I'm trying to get at.

Well, another thing that I thought of after hitting submit is the saying that you should NOT invest money that you'll be needing in the next few years. The short-term fluctuations in the market are huge. If you invest $X now, there's a 30% chance that in 5 years the investment will be less than $X.

Ah...taking a larger draw sometimes and a smaller draw sometimes already has a name----Variable Withdrawals. Based on portfolio returns and fluctuations in portfolio value.

You can't take a large draw now and plan to offset it by taking a smaller draw later. Because the "safe" draw amount depends on the statistics of the portfolio, historically.
Consider the case where you take an 8% draw for 5 years and plan to offset that by taking 3% afterwards.

Firecalc show the worst-case portfolio balance at the end of 5 years as only 25% of the initial value.

So you start off with $100K, take 8% for 5 years, now you have $25K. You go from $8000/yr (8% of $100K) to $750/yr (3% of $25K).

The risk is too great. Sometimes there is no way to do what we want to do.
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