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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/it-can8217t-be-done-34297443.aspx

Subject:  It can’t be done Date:  9/18/2019  12:42 AM
Author:  qazulight Number:  567574 of 573104

In 1986 I was talking to a man about computers. The first CGA monitors were hitting the market.

I commented that I didn’t see the point of anything other than a green screen if one couldn’t print in color. He said, “Never happen; it would take a megabyte of memory to hold a color page.”

Just read two articles, one about a scam company that says they are currently building a battery (they quit using super capacitor because everyone immediately rolled their eyes.) I point it out because in the 1970’s there was a special carburetor that would make a car get 80 miles per gallon.

It took a while, but at 55 miles hour a slimmed down Prius might get 80 miles per gallon.

While the carburetor was a fraud, the dream was real.

Dreams matter

“A computer on every desk”
Microsoft

“Organize all the information in the world”
Google

“Make education available for every person for ever”
Khan Academy

Elon Musk has taken the dream of electric transportation and infected the whole world with it.

It will never happen, just like those color printers are just a pipe dream.

I just read an article, it had a couple of facts. one fact and one projection. The fact. in 2018 lithium ion battery storage dropped to 175 dollars a kilowatt hour. The projection is that it will take 20 dollar a kilowatt hour to get to 100 percent renewable energy in the
electric grid.

I recall that batteries are dropping in price by about 1/2 every 3 and 1/2 years. We will call it 1/4 every 7 years.

2018 175 per kilowatt hour
2025 44 per kilowatt hour
2032 11 per kilowatt hour
2039 3 per kilowatt hour

Moores law worked for about 30 years.

The lithium ion battery made its wide customer debut with the I-phone 3 about 2008.

We can realistically expect to see 3 dollars a kilowatt hour. Additionally, it has been noted by executives in the industry that the cost is closely related to energy density. The higher the energy density the lower the cost.

In other words, a Tesla with the same sized battery pack in 2039 as it had in 2018 would have a range of 10,000 miles.

Of course nothing works in a linear fashion. I just point these numbers out to say that before mid century we will dramatically change the way we produce and consume energy.

Cheers
Qazulight
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