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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/in-1986-i-was-talking-to-a-man-about-computers-34297458.aspx

Subject:  Re: It can’t be done Date:  9/18/2019  3:29 AM
Author:  mschmit Number:  567578 of 576116

In 1986 I was talking to a man about computers. The first CGA monitors were hitting the market.

I commented that I didn’t see the point of anything other than a green screen if one couldn’t print in color. He said, “Never happen; it would take a megabyte of memory to hold a color page.”


Interesting because Gordon Moore first described Moore's Law in ~1965. And so chips of all kinds, including memory chips had been doubling in density every ~2 years for over 20 years at that time. So the guy you were talking to didn't know much.

Moores law worked for about 30 years.

More like over 50 years. Transistors density is still increasing while the side effect of clock speed increases ended 10-15 years ago.

The lithium ion battery made its wide customer debut with the I-phone 3 about 2008.
Assuming you don't count Sony's use in camcorders over 10 years before.

In other words, a Tesla with the same sized battery pack in 2039 as it had in 2018 would have a range of 10,000 miles.

Doubtful. What is the underlying physical property(s) that you think will be exploited to do this? For computer logic processing and memory chips there is a solid basis for what has happened. And it is the fact that we are storing, processing and transmitting "information" which can be represented by smaller and smaller numbers of electrons or electrical charge. This is limited primarily by our ability to reliably detect these subtle changes and/or apply mathematical error detection and correction to allow some errors that are corrected as we shrink the device size and lower the power required.

Batteries store energy. I don't know what the limit is in some given volume. But I doubt we can exponentially just cram more and more electrons into a given space in the same way that in computers we cut the required number of electrons in half a couple of dozen times.

This doesn't mean batteries won't get better. It is just that applying Moore's Law to it is a bit nonsensical.

Mike
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