The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks


Subject:  Re: It can’t be done Date:  9/18/2019  4:00 PM
Author:  qazulight Number:  567637 of 576497

Why would batteries follow Moore's law?

Equating batteries to transistors seems a stretch.

Manufacturing scale up to lower costs seems a very different process.

Any explanation welcomed.

Batteries are not following Moore’s law. Moore’s law stated a doubling every year. The capacity actually doubled about every 18 months until about 2000. It slowed further after that.

Lithium Ion Battery capacity has been doubling about every 42 months. This is just what the people that are involved have noted. There is no deductive reason to believe that it will not slow down or accelerate. However, at some point the physics will take over. One simply cannot store more energy in a chemistry than in the neutrons.

When this will happen is not known.

As we are dealing with man’s ingenuity, his hopes and dreams, we can only use intuition.

It has been so in the past, and until we see a change, it will continue into the future.

I used Moore’s law because it had a good run in excess of 20 years. Not because batteries will proceed down the same path.

I will note that this does not happen by magic, it takes effort, which takes knowledge and tools and money and time.

As more knowledge and tools and money pours into the research, we may see the time remain stable for doubling or it may accelerate. The safe bet is that neither happen, it slows.

But, to dismiss the possibilities is to miss the opportunities.

Copyright 1996-2020 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us