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Subject:  Re: Energy storage costs Date:  9/19/2019  4:08 PM
Author:  jaagu Number:  88370 of 89936

We have no way of knowing what the eventual lower limit of $$ per kWh of energy storage will be....but there's no guarantee that it's as low as $20 simply because that's what we want or need it to be.

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Engineers make educated guesses all the time based on knowing all the factors. I look to these engineers and see what they are forecasting. for the last 10 years I have been forecasting on MF that natural gas and renwables will dominate new power generation through 2020 because I knew the factors. I also forecast that coal and nuclear power would suffer massive cancellations and shutdowns through 2020 because I knew the factors.

Now I look at what the energy experts are saying about energy storage. Here are 2 reports that forecast battery storage growth based on knowing the factors:

Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to
storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities. This work
documents the development of these projections, which are based on recent publications of
storage costs. The projections show a wide range of storage costs, both in terms of current costs
as well as future costs. Although the range in projections is considerable, all projections do show
a decline in capital costs, with cost reductions by 2025 of 10-52%.

The cost projections developed in this work utilize the normalized cost reductions across the
literature, and result in 21-67% capital cost reductions by 2030 and 31-80% cost reductions by
2050.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73222.pdf

Battery storage in stationary applications looks set to grow from only 2 gigawatts (GW) worldwide in 2017 to around 175 GW, rivaling pumped-hydro storage, projected to reach 235 GW in 2030. In the meantime, lower installed costs, longer lifetimes, increased numbers of cycles and improved performance will further drive down the cost of stored electricity services.

https://www.irena.org/publications/2017/Oct/Electricity-stor...

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication...

jaagu

P.S. - In my engineering judgement, energy storage will reach something close to $50/kWh in the next 10 years and will continue to go down through 2050.
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