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Subject:  BRX 4Q 19 Results conf call thoughts Date:  2/12/2020  10:42 AM
Author:  Kingran Number:  85542 of 86284

Some random thoughts

- The company guided $1.9 to $1.97 FFO for next year
- Even while they are guiding 3.5% SS NOI, the FFO guidance is almost flat, mainly due to dispositions
- They have a pipeline for next several years of redevelopment opportunities, because of existing leases, they still have many attractive opportunities that are not in their pipeline, in other words the redevelopment will continue to lead to leasing spreads
- The company expects, as leases expire they have opportunity to increase rents, and continue SS NOI for next several years, many anchor leases expiring at $8/Sqft has opportunities to increase by 40%

I expect,
- the company will moderate its disposition
- Will buy properties where they can use their redevelopment expertise and capital
- will opportunistically use stock markets to raise capital and conversely if a sell off occurs, they may be able to take advantage, assuming everything else being equal, you expect share price in range.
- The dividend will be raised by 3% to 5% for next 2 to 3 years
- I am not expecting debt to come down, rather debt vs EBITDA will come down due to increasing earnings.
- The stock price gains are going to come only from the multiples expansion, given the sentiment towards retail REIT, I am not sure how much multiples expansion is possible, currently they are trading between 10x to 11x.

I wish, they focus more on small store and increase occupancy there. The REIT can easily increase occupancy by 300 to 500 basis points, this is the only place where they can increase earnings substantially and will be a surprise. Right now, no one, management or analysts expect this.
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