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Subject:  A Lottery Ticket Pays Off Date:  2/28/2020  3:20 PM
Author:  Arindam Number:  36734 of 37111

04/27/11, I bought 20 of Buckeye Tobacco Settlement's zeros of '47 for 2.54475. Today, E*Trade messaged me that the bonds will be called on 03/12/20 at 14.392.

My achieved gains will beat those of most stock investors, even the FAANGers, for this simple reason: There is no inherent superiority of 'equity' over 'debt', because on a risk-adjusted basis, stocks and bonds will offer the same returns, or else the arbs step in to make it so. That's just how markets work and why a 60/40 allocation is 'robust', even though I eschew stocks entirely.

Had I known my investment in those bonds would pay off, I would have bought more. But that's exactly what cannot be known. Therefore, one's buying has to be done with 'downsides' in mind, not 'upsides'. Additionally, because I didn't want to be paying taxes on phantom interest on an issue that might blow up before maturity, I stuck them in an IRA, thinking it would be my heirs that would deal with them. Instead, I got called early and made roughly 53% per year, which is decent money, but not the best I've done with bonds.
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