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Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway

URL:  https://boards.fool.com/the-case-fatality-rate-of-the-swine-flu-in-the-34423187.aspx

Subject:  Re: Israeli Researchers Make Breakthrough Date:  2/28/2020  9:30 PM
Author:  dividends20 Number:  248125 of 265717

The case fatality rate of the swine flu in the U.S. was about 0.02 percent. Estimates of Covid-19 are about two orders of magnitude higher. Even if the estimates are off by one order of magnitude, Covid-19 will still be an order of magnitude more lethal than swine flu.

So even if we get really lucky and Covid-19 only spreads the same as swine flu (and if you don't think it will spread at least that much, what is your rationale?), that comes out to roughly a million deaths. And with about 20% (or 12,000,000 million) requiring critical care, that will outrageously overwhelm our chronically-strained health system (if you haven't had to wait many hours in an ER waiting room despite being quite ill, be thankful)...leading to a huge amount of morbidity and mortality from critical illnesses completely unrelated to Covid-19. Further overwhelming the emergency system will be all those who aren't even very sick, but in fear show up in the nation's ERs. Moreover, it is a near-certainty that a significant portion of our currently inadequate number of healthcare providers will be sick and/or die, further compounding the tragedy.

I don't even want to consider what it will be like if Covid-19 spreads far beyond what the swine flu did a decade ago...yet with it's much higher infectivity, that seems the more likely scenario.


So China which is the epicenter, has much higher density of population, people living closely,
bad air and much higher pollution issues has less than 3k deaths.

And your best case scenario for US is 1 million deaths
and 12 million critical patients ?

No wonder I get to buy BRK at 1.17 PBV.
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