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Social Clubs / Where Angels Fear to Tread

URL:  https://boards.fool.com/while-that-is-good-sign-it-still-suggests-we-have-34454424.aspx

Subject:  Re: March 2020 - Dreamer Corp Date:  3/28/2020  4:25 PM
Author:  DreamerDad Number:  11365 of 11616

While that is good sign, it still suggests we have to get sick first, and be out of commission 4-5 days, possibly in the hospital in order to receive the meds in the first place.

I think the market is in for some pain this week, or at least a rational market would be...Trump now talking about quarantining NY and a couple other states...an obvious nod to fact they aren't under control.

The death rate is still over 30% day/day, bringing us close to 2000 total today.
This is a doubling about every 2 to 2-1/2 days. Meaning on Monday afternoon we should be talking about 3500-4000 U.S. deaths, behind Italy and Spain only at that point. If that rate holds, we will be over 10,000 deaths Thursday evening or Friday morning...if Italy has slowed, the U.S. may lead in covid deaths at this time next weekend.

That would still be about a 1/3rd of the annual deaths from auto accidents or the normal flu...and we just accept those facts as reality in society: 60-70k people each year die from flu or auto accidents in U.S., both which would be classified as unexpected on a personal level should it happen to someone close to us, even if we intellectually understand it as a whole for society.

I think this is where Trump's head is: "hey...this thing is bad, but we don't tell US automakers to stop making cars bc they kill 30k people every year."

Other factors: those that recover should be immune...why not jump back into normal work/society at that point, although 100k recovered workers is still a drop in the bucket when you shut down all of society. So Trump will want some sort of modified back-to-work action, is my guess, that puts the blame and responsibility on individual states, and Fed will just issue "recommended guidelines" of seniors should stay isolated and social distancing in general should be the norm, but if you have no symptoms and want to go to office or factory or whatever, go ahead, as long as your state allows it.

Wrap all this conjecture and craziness into my crystal ball, smear it in wet clay, and throw it at a wall from a moving vehicle, and the result is about as useful as any prediction I can deduce.

So the only certainty I sense is that a sense of uncertainty will rear back up this week a bit, and expect we see some pressure on the market. If not, then I may be stuck sitting on my hands a lot longer than I imagined, because I am not chasing valuations in this environment.

Nothing would surprise me on what the next ERs look like...they will be very mixed bags, I imagine, and I think the smartest thing any of them could do, is to abandon forecasts. Buffett thinks they are dumb, Saul ignores them...and it removes "miss" and "beat" from the equation and turns the focus on to "is the company executing now and/or do they see issues with executing again in the future?"

I am imposing a restriction on sugar today...got out of hand the past week. Normally a somewhat paleo-diet follower, all bets are off as my comfort food takes the edge off the news/stress.

Dreamer <--- getting a bit doughy
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