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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks


Subject:  Re: An ordinary market cycle? Date:  4/6/2020  10:09 PM
Author:  PeterRabit Number:  585325 of 594946

>Will the descent be a long ride into the capitulation like the others? Or will this exceptionally volatile, rapid crash bounce back rapidly as soon as the epidemic is brought under control?

IF the epidemic could be brought under control (which I define as "no need for further social distancing") by the end of April or even by the end of May, I think everything would bounce back.

It might take six months to repair the damage, but the direction would be clear.

Now what are the chances that ending social distancing by June would NOT cause a devastating second wave of Covid-19?

Perhaps 1 in a 1000.

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