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Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway


Subject:  Good times ahead? Date:  6/3/2020  11:35 AM
Author:  johnIII Number:  253490 of 257720

"More dour economic figures underscored the damage wrought by the COVID-19 crisis, with U.S. employers shaving off nearly 2.8 million private payrolls in May...

However, markets shrugged off the data, which beat consensus expectations by a mile. On average, Wall Street economists expected private sector job losses to total 9 million for the month"

Hypothetical question. Suppose a C19 vaccine is discovered tomorrow. Is the current market fairly priced? I guess what I'm getting at, is the damage already wrought by C19 priced into the market, excluding the possibility of a second wave and other future bad events? It seems to me the market is irrationally high even in the "vaccine tomorrow" scenario.

Anecdotal information. As background, the circle of people I know tend to be well educated. I'm not aware of anyone, and that's probably over 100 people including work and church, that has returned to "back to normal". And I live in GA, USA where it's almost encouraged to do so. Everyone I'm aware of has canceled summer trips and is still isolating at home, leaving only to buy essentials. We pick up food from restaurants regularly (few times a week), order things online, but that's our only contribution to the economy. No sporting event, canceled 2-3 summer vacations. Not going to Hamilton, or any other theater, movies, etc. Kids are not doing summer day-camps, although some may occur online. That has to hurt the economy.

Google rescinded offers to contract workers (thousands?) and IBM had layoffs, so even large companies without cash-flow issues are feeling the pinch. So what am I missing? Market up 1% today on news "only" 2.8 million private payrolls were cut in May, when 9 mil was expected. What is the most bullish case a person could come up with? I guess that's my question.

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