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Subject:  My mid year review Date:  6/30/2020  7:00 PM
Author:  tktrimbath Number:  10602 of 10602

INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I include the economy and markets to check my perception of the bigger picture. I post in case it helps others too.

Economy & Markets
The market is booming! Let's see after a boom comes a ... what was it?

The party may be over. They don't go on forever. The cleanup in the Great Recession was funds directed towards institutions with a hoped-for trickle down to individuals. This time every sector is hunting for handouts. The cleanup is being paid for with credit cards, or the governmental equivalent. Federal debt was already high. Wage growth was too low. Whoever is governing after January will have a mess.

In most crises, even as businesses fail, others rise. Knowing which is which isn't obvious, except in retrospect. There will be, and probably already are, investment opportunities for stable companies and companies that will positively disrupt conventions.

For those with wealth in assets or income or both, those opportunities can be welcome. For those without assets or income, the divide will grow. More unrest is likely if enough people make too little, feel they've been dismissed, and are generally living in despair. (Note that Death By Despair was already a recognized cause of increased deaths before the pandemic.)

The tendency to throw money at the problem is also happening as money is needed to contain and counter the pandemic. Debt will increase at all levels from federal to personal. The last time, this affected homeowners. This time that may be true, too, but debt to equity is increasing to unsustainable levels. Until jobs return and wages rise, we'll probably experience continuations of housing unaffordability and decreased consumer spending. With interest rates already at zero, there are fewer tools to manage the economy. As always, cash will be in control.

Without drastic changes, we'll probably be in very long recovery during which we'll be vulnerable to other upsets. I'm looking to new economy investments: renewable energy, health care improvements, telecommunications, and possibly drone/delivery services. Interesting times that will be so hard to predict that I'm sure much of what I just wrote can easily be in error, shortly. Stay tuned.

(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog )
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