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Subject:  Re: OT Tesla Date:  10/25/2020  9:02 PM
Author:  ItsGoingUp Number:  279317 of 280175

It amazes me that people get paid for producing this horse manure...

ARK ( does some pretty impressive modeling, and makes it public (, along with the trading activity in their funds. Every day. ARK's analysis is done by a team comprising individuals who are competent in the fields relevant to the companies being analyzed, as opposed to the typical analysts used by most funds who understand little other than finance (and often not even that). ARK has been doing pretty well for themselves. And, of course, they don't really get paid for their analysis, but rather make money on the performance of their funds.

I started putting the money I would otherwise keep in cash into ARKK (, ARKW, and ARKQ back in August. So far it's up about 20%, so I'm pretty happy. Better than cash would have done. And better than the S&P 500, which is up ~5%.

So what do you think might happen to the stock price of a company that has been growing its revenue from its main business since 2012 by over 50%/year? Then add to that that it's growing another business with a greater total addressable market even faster, which it expects to end up about the same size as its primary business. That's Tesla's automotive and energy businesses. Do you think it's irrelevant unless they use the revenue to generate "earnings" and thus a good EPS instead of reinvesting it into growing their business?

The possibility that they solve autonomous driving is a wild card that simply makes the potential upside even bigger. Their very limited release of their new software this past week looks quite promising. I can't wait to try it, likely some time in December after it has gone through a couple of iterations. From the look of it, anybody who doesn't take seriously the possibility that Teslas bought any time since mid-2017 will drive themselves at some point within the next few years does so at their peril.

To be clear, my Teslas already drive themselves over half the time that I'm nominally the one driving. I fully expect that to become over 90% some time within the next year. I think this is an upside wildcard to which attention must be paid.

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