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Subject:  Re: The Tragic Tale of Solazyme (SYZM) Date:  11/3/2020  1:13 PM
Author:  BroadwayDan Number:  73132 of 76775


Yeah, like the Chekhov line, "only God knows the difference between success and failure."

Gary -

Yeah, this is why the hardest, and I think most dangerous investments are the ones that check a few, or even most of the boxes and have some very strong positives. For me it all comes down to betting on execution and paying up for it as opposed to betting on potential. When I played fantasy football I always liked a guy with four years experience of proven durability and excellence in his prime over a rookie no matter how promising the rookie appeared to be. I think the key is to be able to walk away from a stock we think probably will do well and invest only in those we can't imagine losing. For me right now DOCU, PTON, ZM and CRWD are the stand-outs, with Twilio, Shop, Cloudflare and Okta close behind.

Another big take away from this post for me is being a tech expert is dangerous. Knowing in detail why a technology is superior can easily lead one to miss other elements. Same with being a financial wizard. Recently Aswatch Damadaran, the great value investor has had to seriously reevaluate his entire thought process on stocks, which he's progressively realized over the years is as much about narrative/intangibles as it is mathematical analysis, as much art as science.

Captain -

No doubt there were many good reasons to take a shot on Solazyme at the time.
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