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Subject:  Re: Can we call it quits on FSLY v. NET? Date:  11/7/2020  12:38 PM
Author:  draj Number:  73288 of 78006

No. of Recommendations: 0
So was I wrong not to sell out of Fastly immediately? In hindsight, yes.
Was I right to sell out ahead of the call, better late than never? In hindsight, yes.
But let’s imagine that this time next week the TikTok drama is suddenly resolved and Fastly’s stock price rebounds to $130 a week later. Would I have been wrong to sell? In hindsight, yes.

Thinking fool

Taking a page from your thesis about "tells" which by the way I find very helpful in thinking about these issues I would disagree somewhat with your assertion.

Yes it was an error not to sell FSLY immediately because there was a clear 'Tell' In fact I think there may have been an earlier tell when the CEO prevaricated in regard to the cause of earnings slowdown, in an earlier public statement.

How ever no matter what happens with TikTok the decision to have sold FSLY was the correct one because it was based on information at your disposal, whereas the future of Tik Tok is not known. On the other hand if you believed that there was a (say) 85% probability a priori that the Tik Tok situation would be resolved in favor of FSLY then PERHAPS you made the wrong decision. But in the earnings call there were two additional factors that might be considered 'tells' As I recall there was very little large customer growth which is the principal target market for the sophisticated FSLY network. Secondly there were additional slowdowns in usage reported without sufficient explanation.

Along the same lines just an observation about NET . The proposition that the real opportunity for NET comes from future regulatory needs and high level customer services as opposed to speed which you referenced in your post about NET was articulated by the CEO in at least one public statement that I came across a short while ago. It made sense at the time but I did not fully digest the implications which were that NET was going to conquer its market and perform very well.

Investing certainly has some similarity to poker but the 'tell' is sometimes found in obscure sources. Clearly its a multidimensional game . Nonlinear and multivariable.


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