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Subject:  Appian, what am I missing? Date:  11/25/2020  11:49 AM
Author:  RevTK Number:  73720 of 78027

It's been a few weeks since I tried bringing Appian to the board.

I had noted that while it was generally moving in the right direction in terms of recurring revenue (cloud subscription revenue was rising sharply YoY), the overall YoY revenue growth was subpar (recent quarter 17%). There was still a substantial fraction of revenue being generated by professional services instead of software subscription, although the trend was towards increasing software subscription revenue. Market cap was only around 5B ("lots of runway").

I had continued to read about Appian, quarterly reports, investor presentations, listened to the CEO talk on conferences etc...

I think we also noted that the Net Promotor Score of Appian's was a little low, meaning it's product is not really "selling itself".

Appian has since continued to basically outperform most other stocks discussed here since May (I started investing in May, Appian was one of my initial first picks at 45$ that month). I have sold out at 96$ in order to redistribute that into my other higher confidence picks. That was what I concluded and decided to do in the end, based on my research. The stock dropped initially from this 96$ high, but then continued to steamroll to 150$ (and ~ 10B market cap). Essentially, Appian would have continued to become my third-most successful investment (judging from share price % increase, not total increase) next to Tesla and The Trade Desk.

I still don't see on what basis this is occurring and none of the parameters I could possibly discern tell me that this should happen. Analyst reports say it is a slow grower, not a worthy investment. Revenue growth numbers look bleak (sub-20% grower). Is this just a case of bad luck and low-code has been realized to be "the future" within the last couple weeks, but not before? There were talks about how Microsoft would crush the low-code sector easily etc... (similar to Slack vs. Teams sort-of talk).

Don't get me wrong here, I stand by my decision to sell and redistribute, but if some people could provide perspective and show me the errors/holes in my analysis, this would be fruitful for my future decisions.
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