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Subject:  Re: PTON's ongoing shipping trouble Date:  11/27/2020  8:00 PM
Author:  EricPrzybylski Number:  73806 of 77914

I suppose I’m just one more opinion in a sea of opinions on this, but I interpreted the shipping issues as fairly devastating, and exited my position the day Pfizer’s vaccine was announced. The holiday/winter quarter while the pandemic is still raging was a singular, perfect storm opportunity for Peloton—-and they couldn’t figure it out.

Consumers (unlike businesses) make purchases on sentiment and feeling just as much as they do on fundamental need, and the certainty of a **minimum** 3-month wait (thus missing the Holidays and most/all of the seasonal winter) is certainly enough to dissuade the marginal buyer of a highly discretionary and expensive piece of equipment. The reality of a vaccine just adds another reason to hold off and see if things improve. I foresee a lot of cancellations, which won’t impact the quarter’s sales as delivery will go to the next in line, but that’s still a permanent loss of a customer.

I still think Peloton could and will be a long-term winner, and hope good things for the company, but it seems likely to me that any near-term upside is kneecapped by the supply chain issues, and I fear that there is some permanent opportunity lost, as well.

Best of luck to all longs. PTON is still high on my watch list, but I can’t make a buy case for PTON in a concentrated portfolio.

Eric
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